College Hockey News: Inside shots-for analytics.

Over the past few years, perhaps the biggest ongoing conversation in hockey, at least at the NHL level, has been the efficacy of using something as simple as shot attempt differential at even strength to determine team quality. In general, the data suggests that this might actually be the best way to do so, because it filters the sport down to more or less its most repeatable skill.  So without that tool to evaluate teams, we instead have to fall back on the next-best thing available to us, which is overall shot-for data. Moreover, college hockey teams tend to play schedules which are far more unbalanced than the NHL’s already (and intentionally) unbalanced ones.

 

Penn State coach Guy Gadowsky is basically infamous for telling his team to bomb in shots from just about anywhere. Consequently, it’s not uncommon to see the Nittany Lions gain the blue line and take a low-percentage shot that the goalie catches easily. They consequently appear to dominate possession, but the danger of them ever winning remains low. This kind of smoke-and-mirrors tactic has led many to scoff at the analytics movement having a basis in college hockey, but my observations of both Merrimack and Penn State actually lead me to believe that their positive possession, no matter how quote-unquote cheaply they get there, is a positive thing for them.

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