Penn State at Michigan

Drew: Missed opportunities for each of these teams last weekend. Michigan missed out on the opportunity to keep the pressure on Minnesota when the Wolverines got swept by Ohio State. Penn State missed out on making this series very, very interesting when it couldn’t solve Wisconsin’s Matt Jurusik in the third period of Saturday’s loss to the Badgers. A win there would have meant that both of these teams would have come into the weekend with 35 points. As it stands, Penn State needs a sweep or a win and a shootout win to jump Michigan this weekend. The Wolverines swept Penn State when the two played earlier this season. The first game of that series was a home game for PSU with the second being a neutral-site contest at Madison Square Garden.

I see this one going as a split. Ohio State had to have been a wake-up call for Michigan and the Wolverines will want to get on a roll heading into the playoffs. I think Penn State is good enough to capture a win this weekend, but I can’t see the Nittany Lions going into Ann Arbor and sweeping.

Paula: The Nittany Lions came from behind against Wisconsin last weekend in that 4-3 loss, scoring two late in the third period but — as Drew said — Jurusik was the difference, as PSU put up 49 shots on goal to UW’s 26 in that contest. If the Nittany Lions do the same this weekend, the Wolverines’ team defense may be exposed again. During the second period of their 7-4 loss to Ohio State last Friday, the Wolverines played horribly — there is no other word for it. While the Buckeyes won both of those games outright, the Wolverines did very little to further their cause.

After their losses last weekend, the Wolverines slipped from sixth to a tie for eighth in the PairWise Rankings. After their single loss to Wisconsin, though, the Nittany Lions officially became a team no longer under consideration; while still on the PWR bubble, Penn State now ties Minnesota for 17th in the PWR, so the Nittany Lions know that they need to win the Big Ten championship outright to get their first invitation to the NCAA tournament. Besting the Wolverines in points this weekend would help them tremendously in St. Paul.

Michigan knows, though, that a loss to Penn State will hurt the Wolverines’ chances to go to the NCAA tournament as well. This is the first Michigan team that I’ve covered in 21 years of college hockey reporting that has no NCAA tournament experience. While a first-time bid for PSU’s program is a mighty motivator, the Wolverines will be no less motivated — especially since this the last year of Red Berenson’s contract. Games are at 7:30 p.m. on Friday and Saturday night, and each game is carried by Comcast Cable.

Drew’s picks: Michigan 5-3, Penn State 3-1.
Paula’s picks: Michigan 5-4, 5-4.

Source: USCHO.com Blogs :: Big Ten Blog :: U.S. College Hockey Online

HV Note: Paula got it wrong when she declared Penn State needed to win the BTT in order to get an NCAA bid. As I explained in my post earlier this week, even a split in Ann Arbor gets them back into the thick of things.