Here’s our projected look at the NCAA playoffs. We’ll use the same methodology that we’ve used in the past, i.e. KRACH to project the conference champions, PAIRWISE to project the at-large berths, and the NCAA’s identified priorities to seed the teams.
KRACH projects the following champions:
Atlantic Hockey: Robert Morris
Big Ten: Michigan
ECAC: Quinnipiac
Hockey East: Providence
NCHC: North Dakota
WCHA: Michigan Tech
Two of those teams, Robert Morris (#28) and Michigan Tech (#21), are outside of the PairWise Top 16 so they will bump two teams, #15 Minnesota-Duluth and #16 Minnesota, out of the NCAA tournament. Penn State, once again, will be the last team to get an at-large bid.
Using PairWise to seed the team, our 16 team field looks like this:
- Quinnipiac
- North Dakota
- St. Cloud State
- Providence
- Boston College
- Michigan
- Denver
- Yale
- Notre Dame
- Boston University
- Harvard
- Massachusetts-Lowell
- Nebraska-Omaha
- Penn State
- Michigan Tech
- Robert Morris
Using the standard S-curve methodology we then place those teams into four pods.
Pod One (1,8,9,16): Quinnipiac, Yale, Notre Dame, Robert Morris
Pod Two (2,7,10,15): North Dakota, Denver, Boston U, Michigan Tech
Pod Three (3,6,11,14): St Cloud St, Michigan, Harvard, Penn State
Pod Four (4,5,12,13): Providence, Boston College, UMass-Lowell, Nebraska-Omaha
The four regional host cities for 2016 are:
East: Albany NY (hosted by Union)
Northeast: Worcester Mass (hosted by Holy Cross)
Midwest: Cincinnati Ohio (hosted by Miami)
West: St Paul Minn (hosted by Minnesota)
Since none of the host schools made the tournament we don’t have to worry about the NCAA rule that host schools get to play at home.
Each top seed is then placed in the regional closest to it resulting in the following:
Quinnipiac gets the Northeast (Worcester)
North Dakota gets the West (St Paul)
St Cloud St gets the Midwest (Cincinnati)
Providence gets the East (Albany)
Note: Quinnipiac in Hampden CT is about 50 miles closer to Worcester than Albany. As the overall #1 seed, they earn the right to get the closest seed. That said, for overall attendance purposes, there is the potential to swap with Providence. We’ll take a relook at that later.
The pods are then inspected to avoid two teams from the same conference having to play each other if at all possible.
Unfortunately, there are problems with each of the pods. Pod One has two ECAC teams. Pod Two has two NCHC teams. Pod Three has two B10 teams. Pod Four has three Hockey East teams.
Pod Four has the most pressing issue with the three Hockey East teams in that Boston College and UMass-Lowell would be playing each other in the opening round, something that the NCAA wants to avoid at all costs. Typically, the #3 seed in that pod would be swapped with another third seed. However, two of the other third seeds are also Hockey East teams, so nothing is solved by swapping them. That leaves the only place for UMass-Lowell to go is to swap with Harvard in the Midwest pod.
That said, there is an alternative change which I believe makes more sense. Rather than swapping the #3 seeds, I would propose swapping the #2 seeds, Boston College and Michigan instead. In addition to solving the opening round Hockey East matchup problem, this swap also fixes the two Big Ten schools in the same pod issue.
Our other two problems can also be solved with a single swap. If we again exchange the two #2 seeds, Yale and Denver, we completely fix the two issues with Pod One and Pod Two.
Note: While these two swaps solve most of our issues, there is still the potential to have a second round matchup of two Hockey East schools in Pod Four. Unfortunately, since there are five Hockey East schools in the field, that’s a potential issue that cannot be avoided.
So now the matchups look like this:
Northeast (Worcester MA): Quinnipiac, Denver, Notre Dame, Robert Morris
East (Albany): Providence, Michigan, UMass-Lowell, Nebraska-Omaha
Midwest (Cincinnati OH): St Cloud St, Boston College, Harvard, Penn State
West (St Paul Minn): North Dakota, Yale, Boston U, Michigan Tech
Finally, we take a look to see if there are any glaring attendance issues. While the Cincinnati pod isn’t all that attractive, I don’t see any easy solution that doesn’t involve potential second round matchups from the same conference. So we’ll leave things this way.
From the PSU perspective, this means that we project an opening round match against St Cloud St in Cincinnati.